Managing the Decline and Seeding the Growth: How a Global Filter Manufacturer Used Consulting and Strategy Advisory to Build a Portfolio Transition Plan for the EV Era

Executive Snapshot

Client

Global Automotive Filter Manufacturer, Germany & Southeast Asia

Situation/Challenge

The client held EUR 1.2 billion in annual filter revenue. Three of its five major product categories — oil, fuel, and transmission filters — were structurally tied to internal combustion engine operation and would decline in lockstep with ICE vehicle penetration. The board had been informed of this dynamic in general terms for two years. What they had not been given was a quantified, category-specific demand forecast showing the revenue at risk on a defined timeline, nor a consulting-led assessment of where the company should be investing instead.

Objective

Engage consulting services to quantify the EV-driven revenue risk by filter category on a five and ten-year horizon, then apply strategy advisory to identify the adjacent growth segments offering the most commercially viable portfolio transition pathway — and build a five-year transition roadmap that the board could act on.

Constancy Researchers Solution

Consulting Services combined with Strategy & Growth Advisory — a consulting-led EV disruption impact assessment and portfolio vulnerability analysis, followed by a strategy advisory workstream covering adjacent segment research, competitive transition benchmarking, and a five-year portfolio transition and investment roadmap.

Impact

Consulting analysis quantified EUR 340 million in revenue at structural risk by 2032, concentrated in oil and fuel filter categories serving the European and North American passenger vehicle aftermarket. Strategy advisory identified heavy commercial vehicle filtration and EV cabin air quality systems as the two highest-priority adjacent growth opportunities, with a combined addressable market of USD 3.4 billion.

Client Outcome

EUR 78 million in product development investment was approved for EV cabin air quality and commercial vehicle filtration. A new EV product line and first commercial vehicle supply agreement were secured within twelve months. The five-year transition roadmap was adopted as the primary portfolio planning document.

The Situation / Challenge

The structural challenge facing the automotive filter industry in the EV era is not a question of whether ICE-dependent filter revenue will decline — it is a question of how quickly, at what category-level rate, and with what lead time available to respond.

The client’s revenue base was materially exposed to this transition but lacked the consulting analysis to understand the specifics of its own risk profile.

The secondary challenge was equally consequential.

Key Challenges

  • No category-specific, timeline-defined quantification of EV-driven ICE filter demand decline.
  • No systematic assessment of which OEM programme relationships and aftermarket channel positions were most exposed to the earliest volume.
  • No evaluated opportunity set for adjacent growth.
  • Limited competitive intelligence on how peer filter manufacturers were responding.
  • A capital allocation process that continued to distribute product investment by historical category share, systematically maintaining investment in declining.
  • Board expectation of a consulting-led, evidence-grounded transition strategy rather than a general commercial growth plan, given the specific and.

 

The EV transition creates a portfolio management challenge for ICE-dependent automotive suppliers that is more nuanced than it appears. The decline is not uniform across categories, not simultaneous across geographies, and not unaccompanied by new demand creation. The companies that navigate it most effectively are those that quantify the risk with precision, identify the opportunity with rigour, and commit to investment in the transition before the competitive timing advantage has been lost.

Constancy Researchers Solution

Constancy Researchers structured the engagement in two closely connected phases: consulting analysis to establish the precise risk picture with the detail the board required, followed by strategy advisory to build the transition plan that the risk picture called for.

EV Disruption Impact Analysis by Filter Category
  • Applied consulting methodology to model the demand impact of EV adoption on each of the client’s five major filter categories.
  • The analysis produced a finding that the general market narrative had not conveyed: the demand trajectory was not uniform.
Portfolio Vulnerability Assessment & Revenue Risk Quantification
  • Mapped the client’s EUR 1.2 billion revenue base against the category demand forecasts with programme-level granularity.
  • Identified EUR 340 million at structural decline risk by 2032, with EUR 195 million concentrated in two European OEM.
Adjacent Growth Segment Assessment
  • Evaluated four adjacent filtration categories against a structured investment criteria framework covering addressable market size, five-year demand growth, technology.
  • The assessment identified heavy commercial vehicle filtration and EV cabin air quality systems as the two highest-priority entries.
Competitive Landscape & Transition Benchmark Analysis
  • Researched how the ten largest global automotive filter manufacturers were responding to the EV transition.
  • The analysis identified two competitors that had already initiated commercial vehicle filtration entries in the previous eighteen months.
Portfolio Transition Strategy & Five-Year Investment Roadmap
  • Synthesised consulting and strategy findings into a portfolio transition strategy organised across three simultaneous tracks: immediate investment initiation in.
  • Delivered a board-ready five-year portfolio transition roadmap covering product development investment sequencing by category, OEM and aftermarket commercial strategy.

The engagement gave the board what it had been requesting — not a reassurance that the situation was manageable, but a precise, rigorous analysis of exactly what was at risk and a specific, evidence-grounded plan for how to address it.

Impact

  • Consulting analysis confirmed oil, fuel, and transmission filter volume declines 
  • Portfolio vulnerability assessment identified EUR 340 million at structural risk, with EUR 195 million
  • Adjacent segment assessment confirmed combined commercial vehicle and EV cabin air market opportunity of
  • Competitive intelligence identified two peers already executing commercial vehicle filtration entries
  • The cabin air filter category was confirmed as demand-positive under all EV scenarios
  • EUR 78 million in portfolio transition investment was approved within four months of strategy
  • A new EV cabin air quality product line was launched and the first commercial
  • The five-year transition roadmap was formally adopted as the primary portfolio planning document

Client Outcome

Risk Quantification

EUR 340 million in revenue at structural risk was identified with programme-level precision.

Investment Approval

EUR 78 million in product development investment was approved for EV cabin air quality and commercial vehicle filtration.

New Category Entries

Commercial vehicle filtration was entered and an EV cabin air quality product line was launched within twelve months.

OEM Programme Defence

The two highest-risk OEM supply relationships were identified three years in advance of their EV platform transitions.

Competitive Urgency

The competitive benchmarking confirmed that two peers were already executing adjacent segment entries.

Portfolio Rationalisation

Investment allocation was formally restructured — reducing commitment to the three declining ICE categories proportionally.

Board Governance

The five-year transition roadmap was adopted as the primary portfolio planning document.

Market Positioning

The client was repositioned as a strategically proactive filter manufacturer.

Market Positioning

The client was repositioned as a subscription provider whose product decisions were grounded in structured consumer research.

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